A Shockingly Simple Momentum Indicator For Stock Trading

By Ahmad Hassam

Trend trading is the one of the best and most profitable trading strategy used by many traders. Infact, spotting a trend at the right time and riding it till the end can make you rich. When you are trading a trend, you are intereste din knowing how fast the trend is changing or what you may call moving whether it is moving up or down. When the rate of change of a trend goes up, it means that the price action is soon going to follow suit and rise as well!

Now first what is a momentum? You must have read about the momentum in high school physics.Momentum was the velocity multiplied by the mass of the object. Velocity was the rate of change. So when we talk of momentum in trading, we are talking of the rate of change of any security prices. Now. a simple way to calculate the momentum of any security price is to divide the closing price today by the closing price ten days back and then multiply it by 100!

If the price went down, the momentum indicator will be less than 100 and if the price went up, the momentum indicator will be more than 100. Now, when the momentum indicator is greater than 100, the trend is expected to continue in the future. This is your shockingly simple momentum indicator that you can use profitably in your trading. Now, if the price did not change, the momentum indicator will obviously will be 100.

How do you know that the security prices will continue to rise in the future? By looking at the business fundamentals like the sales or profits, if you find them to be rising and accelerating at the same time the security price is rising,there is momentum behind this move! This momentum indicator tells you what is most likely to happen in the future not what happened in the past. So it is a leading indicator. You must have heard about momentum investing or you can even call it momentum trading. In momentum investing , you buy a security at a high price and sell it even at a more higher price unlike ordinary investing where you buy low and sell high. The trick is to know that the price will continue to rise when you do momentum investing.

However, in momentum investing, you search for stocks that have rising prices that are expected to continue for sometime. So you buy high and sell even higher within a few weeks making a decent profit. You can use that profit to do more investing. As said before, instead of investing in a security or a stock you can do momentum investing. When you are doing ordinary investing, you are waiting for its price to appreciate to give you a capital gain. This price appreciation might take from a few months to even years tying down your capital in that investing.

So when you are doing momentum investing, you are looking for a security or a stock that has a potential to move big. How long this big move might take to materialize? Well, the expectation is for the big move to happen in a few weeks to a few months. Just like in ordinary physics, when a ball is set in motion, it will continue moving unless stopped. This is what the Newton's First Law says. You can expect a security price to keep on rising as long as something drastic doesn't happen to stop that rise. So what can be that something drastic? It can be a sudden breaking news about the misdoings of the management that have not been known to the public before. I am just giving you one example. There can be more. So before you do your momentum investing, it is always better to do some fundamental research on the company. Remember the Dot Com Bubble that burst and hurt many people a decade back. Lot of people were doing momentum investing without doing fundamental research on the stocks that they were investing in. So you need to do some fundamental research as well to ascertain that the rise in prices of a stock are sustainable over the long haul or not.

There are many way to do momentum investing. One is the price momentum that we have talked above. The other can be Earning Momentum. If you are a long haul investor who keeps an eye on the financial statements of different companies and you find that the quaterly earnings are going up steadily from one quater to another. What this means is that the stock price will also accelerate and follow suit. - 31876

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